Coal char: the position continues to fall, the atmosphere of the Spring Festival is strong

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Nanhua Futures Early Comment:

Black early review

1. Rebar: It is recommended to wait and see

Yesterday, the thread was sharply stronger and the night was oscillating. In terms of spot, Tangshan billet 2810 (execution lock price) cash ex-factory, Shanghai thread 20mm HRB400 Shagang plant mentions 3280 (+0), the transaction is scarce.

In the futures market, funds flowed in a large amount, and the futures price rose. The spot market merchants were mostly in a state of holiday, and the transaction was rampant. Steel inventories continued to increase, and higher than the same period last year, we believe that the continued rise in the price of the future requires the cooperation of demand. When the downstream demand has not yet started, we believe that the steel price is difficult to show a rising trend, and it is recommended to wait and see.

2. Iron ore: recommended to wait and see

Yesterday, iron ore violently rose, and the night plate was slightly adjusted. The 62% Platts iron ore index is 83.25 (+1.85).

The spot price was stable, the futures price was strong, and the steel mill inventory also rebounded sharply to 35 days. The port inventory continued to increase, the steel mills had sufficient inventory, the demand before the holiday was weak, and the actual transaction was small. It is expected that the price of short-term ore will still be dominated by shocks, and it is difficult to show trend. It is not recommended to chase more and wait and see.

3. Coal char: The position continues to decline, the Chinese New Year atmosphere is strong

Xi Jinping pointed out during his recent inspection in Hebei that the de-capacity is the “hard bone” of Hebei, ensuring that backward production capacity should be exhausted.

In terms of coking coal, the coal blending prices of some coal enterprises in Shanxi have been loosened. The mainstream large mines in Changzhi area took into account the current inventory pressure, and lowered the coal price on the 20th, in which the price of clean coal was lowered by 60-80 yuan/ton, and the price of blended coal was lowered by 90-100 yuan/ton. In addition, during the Spring Festival, Road sales, special extension of the price range, and the price and price linkage. In terms of coke, coke in some areas continued to replenish. The steel mills with relatively large fires are still controlling the volume of goods. In addition, the supply environment is loose. In the latter stage, steel mills continue to suppress the price of coke, and there is still a strong say, but the Spring Festival is approaching. At present, all major enterprises are busy at the end of the year, and the desire to continue the new round of suppression of the price is not very strong. On the unilateral side of the operation, it is recommended to wait and see, and the arbitrage strategy can hold the festival.

White sugar early review

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) raw sugar futures closed down slightly, reversing the earlier rise, as technical buying subsided. Yesterday's night, Zheng sugar fluctuated at a high level, and the price did not change much. Liuzhou middlemen new sugar offer 6790 yuan / ton, the price is unchanged, the transaction is general; some group new sugar platform offer 6850-6900 yuan / ton, the price is unchanged, the transaction is general. Nanning middlemen new sugar offer 6850 yuan / ton, Chen sugar has no quotation, the quotation is unchanged, the transaction is general; the new sugar factory warehouse offer 6750-6840 yuan / ton, the quotation is unchanged, the transaction is general. From a technical point of view, the daily level, the MACD red column expands, the fast and slow line low gold forks up but the trend is flat, KDJ gold fork up, the Bollinger channel is narrow and slender. On the 30-minute line, the MACD turns red and the fast and slow lines are high and the KDJ is still down. Trading strategy: short operation in the day, pay attention to position control before the holiday.

Early egg review

Egg prices in the main producing areas of the country continued to fall, with an average price of 2.65 yuan / kg. The egg prices in the main producing areas continued to fall back. Some areas once again fell to 2.2 yuan/kg. Some areas began to stop, and the sales areas in Beijing and Shanghai fell. The Spring Festival is approaching, the market is gradually coming to an end, all links are relatively cautious, and the terminal is slow. Pre-holiday egg prices are expected to remain low and the decline is limited after the holiday. The main contract of the egg 1705 continued to oscillate and adjust. The performance of several consecutive trading days was violently oscillated within 3300~3450. The intraday trend was fierce. It was immediately facing the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended that investors take short-term operations and the eggs are empty.

Oil and fat oil early review

1. CBOT) Soybean futures closed up slightly on Tuesday, as technical buying and shorting in the first few minutes before the close, boosted the market. Trade sources said on Tuesday that private analyst firm Informa Economics lowered its 2017 soybean acreage forecast to 88.647 million acres, up from a previous month's estimate of 88.862 million acres. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced on Tuesday that private exporters reported exporting 163,000 tons of US soybeans to unknown destinations and 112,000 tons of US soybeans to Mexico.

2. Malaysia's BMD crude palm oil futures recorded the biggest gain in three weeks on Tuesday, halting the four-day losing streak, following the oil price increase of Dalian Commodity Exchange, and expecting the output to decline in January. Traders said that the floods in the rainy season were hurting production, while strong export demand also boosted prices. A trader in Kuala Lumpur said: "Dalian market is strong today and has become the main driving force of the market. At present, Hong Hao has not yet retreated." It refers to the rainy season floods in the eastern coastal areas of Malay Peninsula and Johor. “January production may decline slightly, but exports will be very good... The market (upswing) will continue.” The shipping survey agency will announce Malaysia’s January 1-25 palm oil export data on Wednesday. Traders expect demand to rise from the same period last month. Palm oil production in January fell, in line with seasonal trends, but the new oil palm fruit yields are still affected by the dry weather caused by the El Niño climate phenomenon.

3, the spot: Guangdong soybean oil has no quotation, inventory of 980,000 tons, Guangdong palm oil stopped reporting, inventory of 480,000 tons.

4, the operation: the grease night turbulence, short-term holding the broken 60-day moving average departure. Bean brown difference in May night closed at 684, buy beans empty brown above 650. Soybean meal 1705 night plate closed at 2891, holding more than 30 above the average.

Energy and Chemical Review

1. LLDPE: It coincides with the Spring Festival. The merchants are basically off the market, the trading activities are rampant, and the overall turnover is scarce. The cost of upstream crude oil and naphtha is relatively strong. The petrochemical inventories of the four major PE regions in China have dropped slightly. The operating rate of downstream packaging film factories has changed little, with an average of 60%. The load on the agricultural film and pipe fell seasonally, while the demand for packaging film fluctuated little, but the overall demand for PE declined.

2, PP: Spring Festival holiday is just around the corner, merchants ship with their own sources of goods, trading activities, the overall turnover is small. The downstream factories have been suspended for work, and the market trading atmosphere is sluggish. The increase in the price of propylene and methanol has strengthened the support for PP cost, and the increase in PP drawing production is not much. The downstream enters the off-season, BOPP, woven and injection molding industries are stable, and petrochemical inventories are still low. Currently, PP supply and demand are in a balanced state.

3. PTA: From this week, polyester factories have entered the Spring Festival holiday mode, and the demand side has gradually weakened. However, according to previous years' data, the overall production capacity of this year's maintenance has fallen sharply, so the whole demand still supports PTA prices. effect. Looking at the PTA futures market in the long-term, there may be upside, but in the short-term or narrow range, the spot market is more synchronized with the futures market. Therefore, in the case of slowing demand before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to be dominated by the shock of shifting the focus. Today's PTA futures are affected by the cost of crude oil prices and the fire in South Korea's installations yesterday. The PX price rises and drives up. It can gradually reduce the position of more than one single position, leaving more single bottom positions, and throwing them up after being pulled up.

4. Rubber: Domestically, in December, China's natural rubber imports continued to grow to 345,000 tons, the highest in the three years from 2014 to 2016, up 15.4% year-on-year and 19.6% quarter-on-quarter. Internationally, floods in parts of southern Thailand have improved, and Thailand is expected to sell 310,000 tons of rubber by May. Today, the RU1705 disk was driven by the overall merchandise trend, showing a slight rebound. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream tire factory's operating rate is lowered, and the downstream demand is reduced. According to previous years, some funds will be withdrawn before the holiday. It is expected that the pre-holiday market will not change greatly, and the disk will have a volatile market. After the holiday, the downstream factories started to work and the world is about to enter the stoppage period. It is expected that Hujiao will continue to maintain a strong trend after the Spring Festival, but it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of dumping in Thailand.

Early review of non-ferrous metals

The US McLee newspaper said that the White House compiled a list of priority infrastructure projects; Trump's infrastructure construction projects totaled at least $137.5 billion, and the news was positive for non-ferrous metals. Influenced by Trump's remarks and policy uncertainty, the US dollar index has fallen to the 100 mark. On the domestic front, the central bank raised the MLF interest rate by 10 basis points for the first time, and the monetary policy inflection point was clear, reflecting the attitude of de-leveraging and anti-bubble.

copper:

Boosted by the list of Trump infrastructure projects, the copper price rose 2.33%, and the Shanghai copper opened up in a narrow range. Recently, traders entered the holiday state and spot transactions were stagnant. LME copper stocks began to decline, Indonesia continued to ban the export of copper concentrates, wage negotiations in Chile's Escondida mines have yet to bear fruit, and if workers strike, more than 1 million tons of copper mine production will be affected. In addition, the supply of the Orange Dam copper mine in southern Australia was interrupted. In the long run, the supply interference rate will rise sharply, and the actual refined copper output is expected to decline year-on-year. In the future, under the support of stable demand and inflation expectations, the bottom of the copper price will gradually move up. However, there is a lack of sustained upside momentum before the holiday, and it is not recommended to chase.

aluminum:

Lun aluminum continued to hit a new high of 1,883 US dollars, and Shanghai Aluminum successfully stood at 14,000. The capacity of electrolytic aluminum and alumina is expected to become the target of de-capacity, which will lead to changes in the price expectations of the market and support the strong aluminum price. However, short-term supply pressure still exists, Shanghai aluminum spot discounts expanded, and Lun aluminum stocks increased slowly. New supply in the second half of 2016 was concentrated or released in the first quarter. If the de-capacity policy is not as expected, it is recommended to pay close attention to the policy trend and to take more profit in advance.

Zinc:

Zinc zinc rose to $2,830 on Tuesday, and the pressure on Shanghai Zinc 23000 was obvious. After a narrow range, it closed up slightly by 1%. As the Spring Festival approached, the zinc spot market was bleak, and as the price of zinc rose, the spot rose to the water. Recent macro data have remained stable and positive. The data show that the increase in zinc imports in 2016 has led to a sharp decline in spot stocks. The shortage of zinc mines in the future is difficult to alleviate, and it is gradually being transmitted to the smelting end. The overhaul in January leads to an increase in production. It is expected that there will still be action in the first quarter. . It is recommended to do more after the holidays.

nickel:

On Tuesday, Lun Nickel failed to rise with the surrounding metals, and Shanghai Nickel remained weak and sideways, and continued to adjust in the short term. At present, the Philippine environmental inspection results continue to delay and Indonesia's release of raw ore exports has led to a general weakening of nickel expectations in the market; while the stainless steel industry is growing better than expected this year, boosting demand for nickel raw materials, but demand growth may be more limited in the coming year. The domestic market is approaching the Spring Festival, and the upstream and downstream factories have begun to overhaul. The consumption situation is subject to inspection after the Spring Festival. It is recommended that Shanghai Nickel can operate in the band within the range of 82000-85000.

The above comments were provided by Xue Na, Yu Xiaojiao, Sun Minglei, Li Xiaodong, Fan Qingtian, Yang Long, Sun Jinchen, and Bian Shuyang.