The overall weakness of the textile industry in the weak polarization of the market

The debt crisis in Europe has been overwhelming. Slow growth has been seen in economies such as the United States. Consumer demand has been significantly suppressed. The domestic textile industry with a higher degree of outflow has inevitably fallen into a weak market. The entire industry chain from raw materials to terminals has been affected to varying degrees. Also because the market is weak, the market favors branded companies more, and the polarization in the industry is increasing.

Weak growth in terminal growth Weakness in the upper reaches of the industry The latest industry associations and customs data show that the demand for both the inside and outside of the textile industry in the first five months of this year is not optimistic. From the export point of view, from January to May, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 90.604 billion U.S. dollars, up 2.0% year-on-year. Among them, textile exports totaled 28.073 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 1.4% year-on-year, and exports of apparel and accessories were 52.57 billion U.S. dollars, up 2.5% year-on-year. Compared with previous years, the growth rate has dropped sharply. Since the prices of individual products have increased compared with the same period of last year, the export volume of some varieties has declined. The recent closing of the 111th session of the Canton Fair is still not optimistic. According to statistics, the cumulative export volume of the textile and apparel exhibition halls was only 2.29 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%. Orders, like the second half of last year, are still mainly short and medium-term orders within six months.

According to foreign trade clothing practitioners, in recent years, as the appreciation of *** and various operating costs have increased, orders for low-end textile products have been diverted by Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam.

In a situation where external demand continues to be sluggish, domestic demand is not enough to "force." From the perspective of the domestic market, in May, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and needle textiles for enterprises above designated size reached 72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.0%, but this figure was a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from April. According to data from the China National Business Information Center, retail sales of 50 key large-scale retail enterprises nationwide increased by 10.3% year-on-year in May, and the growth rate also fell from 14.6% in April.

China Textile Industry Federation spokesperson Sun Huaibin recently predicted that the situation in the textile industry in the latter half of 2012 believes that the export situation will remain severe. The high unemployment rate in the EU will lead to long-term lack of demand growth, and uncertainties in the major export markets such as the United States and Japan. Too much, external demand is generally difficult to form a strong pull on the industry growth. Sun Huaibin also believes that if domestic and foreign cotton prices continue to have large differences, the domestic textile and garment export situation will become more severe.

As for the domestic consumer market, Sun Huai-Bin expects that the retail sales of domestic clothing products can still achieve a nominal growth rate of 15%-20% in nominal terms, but the actual market growth level in 2012 will be lower than in the previous year.

While the demand in the terminal market is weak, the price of raw materials in the upper reaches of the country is naturally “a mournful affair”. At present, the spot price of domestic cotton has been hovering around 18,300 yuan/ton, which is lower than the cost of planting in many producing areas. The main man-made fiber that is replaced with cotton is also sold flat. The yarn mills and cloth mills whose profit margins are not high are more difficult to survive than the downstream textile and garment manufacturers. Senior cotton industry researcher Wang Qiang, editor-in-chief of First Textiles Network, was rather pessimistic when interviewed by reporters. He believes that the industry's bottoming out needs to wait for the economic situation to improve. However, the price of international cotton contracts has risen by about 20% in recent days, and there is news that it is related to the increase in imports by China.

There are also optimistic views on the market. The Huatai Securities Research Report believes that from the monthly textile and apparel industry data for the month of May, the downstream demand of the industry is already improving and stabilizing, and the second quarter will be the annual low point of the key companies in the industry. The research report of China Gold Securities believes that raw materials will rebound in August this year. In August of last year, the price of cotton was once rebounded because the country announced an unlimited amount of temporary cotton storage.

In the weak market conditions, the brand is king. Almost all textile and clothing industry researchers believe that the future domestic market is still dominated by expansion. In addition, endogenous growth, that is, brand characteristics is increasingly becoming the main driving force for the development of the company.

A textile and apparel industry analyst told reporters that with the rapid expansion of online shopping, T-shirts, jeans and other clothing with low retail prices have been significantly impacted. However, the high-end apparel categories such as men's suits have been growing at a faster rate, and brand enterprises have particularly benefited.

According to relevant sources, this year's fall/winter fairs for the high-end menswear industry have generally met expectations or exceeded expectations. Among them, seven wolves estimated that the order amount will increase by approximately 30%, the number of newspapers will increase by about 25%, Canoudi Road will increase by approximately 30%-40%, and the price of Hinnor will increase by approximately 20%.

As a sub-industry that has been well-regarded, brand home textile companies have good results. Fu Anna's order amount increased by approximately 30%. Rolls-Royal Home Textiles' order amount increased by approximately 23%-24% year-on-year. Although it is in a weak market, Rollei Hometex still has a large-scale expansion plan this year.

It is also worth noting that the consumption potential of small and medium-sized cities begins to show. In April, the retail sales growth of large-scale retail enterprises in second- and third-tier cities was all above 16%, while that of first-tier cities was only 8.08%. Obviously, consumer upgrading in second-tier and third-tier cities has emerged from an independent market, and the fashionable leisure brand based on the third- and fourth-tier cities has found that the amount of orders for autumn and winter events has increased by more than 50%.