Sea watching period: Today's night and May 23 key trading recommendations

IF, IH, IC main contract and stock market downturn difficult to change, continue to bearish

[Fundamental] Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a trend of high and low in early trading on Monday. As of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3083.11 points, down 0.24%; Shenzhen Component Index reported 9950.23 points, down 0.21%; GEM pointed to 1799.74 points, down 0.07%. On the plate, the steel sector led the market, Jinzhou Pipeline 002443, stocks daily limit, Sangang Shuguang 002110, stocks rose 5.19%, Bayi Iron and Steel 600581, shares, Liugang, 601003, stocks rose more than 4%. The oil and petrochemical sector has strengthened against the market, and the petrochemical oil service has reached 600,871. In terms of the decline, the sub-news sector suffered a setback. Many new stocks such as natural gas and Cathay Pacific Group collapsed in early trading, and the stock price quickly fell. The port sector fell sharply. Zhuhai Port 000507, stock bar, northern harbor, Tianjin Port 600717, shares, etc. fell more than 3%. Xiong'an concept adjustment, space board industry 300344, shares fell 7.19%. In addition, brokerage, logistics, Internet lottery sectors also fell to the top.

[Trends forecast] The recent IF, IH and IC main contracts and the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded normally after the continuous plunge, and the central bank's monetary policy reaffirmed the stability and neutrality. The funds began to appease the market, and the market confidence recovered. After the pressure zone in the upper pressure zone fell back, the market returned to the downward trend. The market continued to fall today. Although the heavyweights once again supported the market, the downturn was difficult to change. The sea is expected to continue to fall tomorrow.

The corn and corn starch areas continue to do more, waiting for a breakout

[Fundamental] What is the most popular thing in the recent food trade market? That must be the national reserve corn auction, whether it is "dry sales" or "sub-loan" or even "targeted sales" are hot transactions, the transaction rate is very high. From the data in the table below, we can visually see how popular the recent corn auction is, and it has sold 10.8 million tons in just half a month. What is the reason for making corn a "fragrance", causing everyone to snap? The author believes that in the context of the downstream demand is still weak compared with previous years, it is not normal for such a good transaction to occur. The so-called "there must be a demon in the abnormal situation." Next, the author will list three personal conjectures and discuss with you. What is the secret of the corn country’s “demonous” high deal? Guess one, the market is really short of food conjecture 2, the big food grain market speculation three, the country wants to make a profit.

[Trends forecast] Corn and corn starch fall back, narrow and low volatility, the interval has not yet broken, the sea believes that the corn has not yet left the shock trend, the operation continues to follow the interval along the cloth, light warehouse waiting.

There is limited space under the cotton, or the next rise

[Fundamental] China Reserve Cotton Management Corporation is scheduled to be listed on May 22, the first quarter of the trading reserve cotton weight of 14,987.891 tons, which need to dump 82 bundles; the second section of the listed trading reserve cotton weight of 14958.956 tons, which need to be poured 80 bundles of warehouses; a total of 29,946.847 tons, need to dump 162 bundles, including Xinjiang, 12,714.146 tons, 17232.701 tons of real estate cotton. According to the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Announcement on the Relevant Arrangements for the National Reserve Cotton Rotation" (No. 9 of 2016), the formula for calculating the reserve price of reserve cotton rotation, the 12th week of the 2016/2017 reserve cotton round (5 On the 22nd to the 26th of the month, the reserve price of the reserve cotton round is 15885 yuan/ton, which is 333 yuan/ton higher than the eleventh week. The sales price of the actual batch reserve cotton listed on the daily basis is based on the standard sales base price. According to the results of the cotton notarization test and the relevant price difference table published by the China Cotton Association.

[Trends forecast] Cotton rushed back and fell, running weak throughout the day. The sea believes that although the trend is weak, the space below is still limited. The night and tomorrow will be rebounding. The short-term orders will be short-term and timely, and the bargains will be light. Do more warehouse

Gold and silver are under pressure, short-term has a short interval

[Fundamental] Wall Street reported on the 22nd report; the latest position data shows that hedge funds chose to profit and sell off when gold and silver stopped falling. The speculative net multi-sector of gold fell for three consecutive weeks, and the net long position of silver fell to the lowest level at the end of 2015. According to data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, as of last Tuesday, hedge funds and speculators held 16,887 gold long contracts, while short contracts increased by 13,110 shares. The warehouse fell nearly 30,000, down to 69,923. Singapore May 22 news, spot gold prices maintained last Friday's gains on Monday, the market's lingering political fears against US President Trump is expected to put pressure on the dollar. At 0058GMT, spot gold was essentially flat at $1,255.30 per ounce. The contract rose about 0.7% last Friday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,255.50 an ounce. On May 19, COMEX gold inventories remained flat at 8,762,196 ounces; silver inventories continued to increase to 201,314,032 ounces.

[Trends forecast] Gold and silver shocks, short-term and timely appearance of profit, the sea believes that gold and silver are temporarily suppressed above, the night and tomorrow will be shocked down, the operation of the attention to the rhythm into the short-term empty orders, fall back to profit.

Eggs are waiting for more than one, waiting for the end of the bottom

[Fundamental] The decline in the national egg price has eased, the supply in the production area has decreased slightly, the sales in the sales area has gradually accelerated, and there is a short week in the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. The egg price in the main producing area has rebounded to 1.93-2.07. between. Earlier, the author emphasized that the spot egg price entered the darkness before dawn, the spot price and spot price collapsed, and the far-month price was firm, and the loss of farming loss was bound to lead to long-term inventory losses. Considering the increased willingness to eliminate culture, the price fluctuation in recent months It will be further aggravated. In the short-term, it is not appropriate to further participate in the short-selling. Be wary of the price starting to rebound after the summer, and continue the cycle to rebound, pay attention to risk control. Spot: On May 19, according to Boya Hexun, the eggs in the main producing areas of the country stopped falling, the average price was 1.93 yuan / kg, which was 0.03 yuan / kg higher than that on the 18th, and the average price in Shandong was 2.05 yuan / kg. The average price in Hebei is 1.89 yuan / kg. Today, the egg prices in the main producing areas have stopped falling and rebounded. Shandong and Hebei have risen slightly. The sales area in Beijing has risen slightly and Shanghai has stabilized. At present, the price of eggs has basically bottomed out, and the low-level resistance of all links in the market is strong. Local sales have improved, and short-term egg prices or lows are expected to rise slightly, but space is limited. Trading strategy: Egg 1709 contract, short-term rebound repair, but the overall weakness, rebound space is now limited. Short-term after the morning, pay attention to the pressure near 3580. Under this pressure, the rallies will be short and short, and then look at the position near 3500. If the change is large, pay attention to the latest ideas in the session.

[Trends forecast] Eggs fluctuated widely today, suggesting that the profit of the short-selling profit will be slightly profitable again. The sea believes that the operation of the eggs should not be chased. The operation waits for the bottom of the eggs to complete, and the rebound of the light warehouse continues to be short, and the profit is more. Waiting for a while.

The fluctuations in the sugar plate are fierce, and the short-term light warehouses are mostly held waiting, with more shocks.

[Fundamental] Futures Daily reported on May 22: Commodity options have been on the market for more than a month. From the analysis of trading volume and position changes, we believe that investors are gradually familiar with trading rules and basic strategies, and operations are getting better. For the two domestic commodity options, due to different fundamental factors, there are also large differences in their trends. From the analysis of the volume and price changes, we believe that the divergence of the soybean meal option market has intensified, and the white sugar option market has a bullish atmosphere. White sugar options short-term or rising white sugar call option contract prices rose, put options prices fell, indicating that the market is more optimistic about the white sugar futures market. Specifically, the white sugar option contract with the main sugar futures contract of 1709 is the active trading atmosphere, the positions increase, the call option prices start to rise, and the put options prices have a downward trend.

[Trends forecast] White sugar fluctuates sharply today, diving in the middle of the day. The sea believes that white sugar will continue to be more concentrated in the range, and the low position is more than one. The holders who have no positions are doing more dips, and the short positions are temporarily avoided. The rising rhythm is not smooth for the time being. Short-term light warehouse is the main.

Soybean oil palm peas 粕 粕 粕 粕 如 如 如 如 如 如 如 如 如 如

[Fundamentals] On Monday morning, Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures closed higher as the external market strengthened. As of noon, palm oil futures rose by RM8 to RM31, with the benchmark August palm oil futures rising by about RM30 to close at MYR2,665/ton. The trading range for the morning benchmark period is between RM2,658 and MYR2,668. Asian electronic trading hours Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) soyoil futures rose strongly. As of 12:25 Beijing time, the soybean oil period in July rose by about 0.12 cents to close at 33.16 cents per pound. China's big business soybean oil futures strengthened and also supported the Malaysian palm oil market. However, the ringgit exchange rate has risen strongly, weakening the competitiveness of Malaysian palm oil exports and restricting the upside of the broader market. As of noon, the ringgit exchange rate was $1 to RM4.307. The shipping survey agency will release the palm oil export data for the first 20 days of May in Malaysia today. Technically, the support for the benchmark period is estimated at RM2,620.

[Trends forecast] The oil and fat market has recently differentiated. The oil has performed strongly at the beginning of last week, and it has continued to rebound. The market has signs of topping and weakening. The two stocks are weak. After weakening last week, the market rebounded to the top. Party pressure, then return to the downside. Adhere to the overall situation of the two oils and fats has been quiet for a long time, long and short times and force each other, the market continues to remain to be seen, the overall situation of the market has rebounded, strong shocks, the sea is expected to continue to fluctuate at night and tomorrow. .

Rubber rushed back and the market continued to rebound

[Fundamentals] The Futures Daily reported on May 22nd that Trump’s “Breakout” incident was rapidly fermenting, triggering market concerns about the prospects of a new tax cut in the United States, which in turn shook the foundation of a strong dollar. Against the backdrop of a sharp fall in the US dollar index last week, global commodity market pressures have fallen sharply and asset prices have risen. Under the ambiance of more than one atmosphere, Hujiao futures bulls confidence increased, and the 1709 contract price rebounded to above 14,000 yuan/ton. In the past week, among the top 20 seats of Hujiao 1709 contract, long and short positions have continued to increase. However, the bulls’ strength has rebounded significantly and they have pressed the bears. According to exchange position data, long positions increased from 79,999 on May 12 to 86,204 on May 19, a cumulative increase of 6,205 contracts; short positions increased from 111,181 on May 12 to May 19 115,489 hands, a cumulative increase of 4,308 hands. Last Friday, the price of Hujiao 1709 contracted a strong rebound after hitting a new low level, indicating that the bullish counterattack awareness increased, and the enthusiasm for intervention was stronger than the short position, so that the net position of the top 20 seats fell on a week-on-week basis. It can be seen that it has shrunk from 31,182 clearances on May 12 to 29,285 contracts on May 19, a decrease of 1,897 contracts, a decrease of 6.08%.

[Trends forecast] After the recent plunge in rubber, the market once again maintained a low level of volatility, which was mixed with each other. After the market opened lower on Friday, it rose strongly and recovered the decline. The K line went out of the state of “breaking down and rising,” and today’s market is on schedule. High, then fall back, the sea is expected that the night and tomorrow's market will rebound again.

Pp, L, pta, asphalt and methanol remain volatile, and the market rebounds again

[Fundamental] Futures Daily reported on May 22nd: The fundamentals are not optimistic. With the overall rebound of crude oil and chemicals, the price of methanol has also risen sharply. On Friday, it closed at the price limit. However, the author believes that the price increase of methanol is difficult to sustain. Most of the foreign installations have been operating normally, and the import volume is expected to increase. Starting in February, large-scale overhaul of foreign installations, China's methanol imports have decreased significantly. Up to now, most of the equipments that have been repaired in the past have been operating normally, and the supply of methanol has also recovered. In April, China imported 630,000 tons of methanol, an increase of 110,000 tons from March, and the port supply was sufficient. In terms of import profits, methanol imports have a higher profit as the price of methanol in the outer disk has fallen. Since the end of March, import profits have been considerable. Calculations show that in April, methanol import profits were above the profit and loss line, reaching a maximum of 153 yuan / ton. Although there was a decline in the first half of May, domestic methanol prices rebounded last week, and import profits rose again, exceeding RMB 50/ton. Imports are profitable and methanol imports will increase further. The plastic spot market presents three major characteristics while expanding rapidly. Liao Chengwei, general manager of Shanghai Silian Feiyang Chemical New Materials Co., Ltd. said that first, the rise of coal chemical industry and PDH, the pricing power of the two oils is weakened, the market price is dominated by futures and funds in the short term, and the market and trend are dominated in the medium and long term. Second, trade The transformation of resources from resources into kings is a double-edged sword; third, the upstream of the industrial chain tends to be dispersed, the middle and lower reaches tend to concentrate, the upstream of the industrial chain tends to be dispersed, and the middle and lower reaches tend to concentrate.

[Trends forecast] pp, L, pta, asphalt and methanol were strong at the beginning of last week. After rebounding to the upper pressure zone, the pressure was repeated and the market was severely divided. After the reversal of crude oil, the chemical industry surged. The persistence of the market commentary remains to be seen yesterday. Today's market continues to fluctuate as scheduled, and the sea is expected to rebound again and higher as expected.

The risk of threaded iron ore is intensifying, and the market is volatile.

[Fundamental] Wall Street reported on the 22nd; China's steel market showed a sharp contrast: on the one hand, crude steel production hit a record high, while on the other hand, rebar prices rose in volume, and futures main contract positions even reached unprecedented levels. High level. Black products last week as a whole, with thread, hot coil and iron ore rising by 10.3%, 9.75% and 8.55% respectively; 327 companies with 70% of problems have been inspected by the Ministry of Environmental Protection and they have eaten 7 closed doors; the total amount of projects or Over 20 trillion PPP to prevent risks into future work priorities; expansion! The property market "restricted sales" over 30 cities has become a key policy for tightening regulation; the US economic growth rate will be less than 3% within two years; crude steel output hit a new high In the second half of the year, the market outlook was optimistic; domestic steel prices rose sharply, and import prices continued to rise slightly. On May 19, 2017, the Platts iron ore index rose 0.96% to US$63.05, and domestic iron ore futures rose sharply. Rebar rose 5.4% to 3357 yuan / ton; iron ore rose 5%; coking coal, coke jumped more than 3%. On Friday, the domestic market opened at night, almost all the way up, iron ore and glass led the gains, both rose more than 3.2%. Zheng alcohol continued its strong trend in the day, and the increase was over 3%. Among the base metals, Shanghai Zinc was the strongest, rising more than 2%. Zheng cotton's trend is the weakest, falling more than 0.5%

[Trendment forecast] At present, the black supply and demand are weak, the basic varieties are differentiated, and the disk surface is also cross-affected, resulting in repeated shocks in the recent market. Last week, the market stabilized and adjusted, and the strong rushed to repair the discount. Today, the black has risen again, but the futures price has reached a high level. At present, it is difficult to have a big rise. The market is overreacting and the risk is intensifying. The sea is expected to have a high price at night and tomorrow. Shock.

The reversal of copper, zinc and nickel is difficult to sustain, and the market will fall back

[Fundamental] Futures Daily reported on May 22: It is expected that the LME three-month copper low can reach 5,000 US dollars / ton in the near future, the copper market performance is relatively calm, Shanghai copper repeatedly oscillated in the 44500-47,000 yuan / ton range, has not been big Trend of the market. After the shortage of copper concentrate was falsified for the shortage of refined copper, the problem of copper supply that had been speculated in the market has not been mentioned. After the tide has receded, the impact of the strike on the supply of copper concentrate is geometric. For this reason, the author reviews the true supply of copper concentrate outside the country. Shanghai Nonferrous Metals reported on the 22nd; in April, the Sino-Copper copper industry climate index was 32.77, down 0.62 points from the previous month; the first synthetic index was 92.73, down 2.10 points from the previous month; the consensus composite index was 76.02, compared with the previous month. It rose by 0.95 points. The monitoring results of the China-Copper Copper Industry Climate Index show that the copper industry's prosperity index has declined and is currently in the “cold” range. Foreign media reported on May 19, sources said on Friday that China's refined zinc imports are expected to increase this month, as global zinc concentrate supply is increasingly constraining refined zinc production. China's refined zinc production fell to its lowest level in more than two years in April, affected by the closure of major mines in Australia and Ireland. This may prompt refined zinc buyers to consider overseas sources of supply, thereby boosting international zinc prices. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday, China's refined zinc production in April fell 5.6% year-on-year to 474,000 tons, a two-year low.

[Trends forecast] The recent market differentiation of the market is serious, and the shock is intensified. After the low opening of the outer market on Friday, there was a reversal. The market was strong and strong, but the reversal was difficult to sustain. The overall weakness of the tin is still difficult to change. The sea is expected to be at night and tomorrow. Rush back.

(Editor: Chen Hao HF072)

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