Adding to the snow! US data strong gold declines intensified long dreams

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Original title: Adding to the snow! US data strong gold declines intensified long dreams

FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News International spot gold continued to fall sharply after the Fed’s interest rate hike on Thursday (December 15), the US market hit a low of 112.525 US dollars / ounce, hitting a low since February, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday The hawkish rate hike was implemented, and the US bond yield and the US dollar both hit a 14-year high. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the US federal funds rate to 0.5-0.75. The Fed also said that it will raise interest rates at a faster pace next year to deal with the Trump administration's new policy of tax cuts and increased spending. The number of US initial jobless claims announced in the day, the US Markit manufacturing, the US CPI and other data are relatively strong, supporting the correctness of the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates and further suppressing the formation of gold.

The US dollar continued to rise sharply on Thursday, with the US dollar index rising 1.25% to 103.33 points. US stocks rose on Thursday, the Dow rose 0.78% to 19946.91 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.59% to 2266.56 points; the Nasdaq rose 0.5% to 5463.78 points. Crude oil fell on Thursday, the US oil index fell 0.84% ​​to $50.60 per barrel; the oil index fell 0.19% to $53.80 per barrel.

The continued decline in gold on Thursday continued the impact of the Fed’s hawkish rate hike and was also hit by strong data released during the day. Analysts said that the Fed’s hawks far exceeded expectations, stimulating the dollar’s ​​rise again. The rise in US yields and the surge in the dollar are the worst combination for gold. Before the Fed raised interest rates, gold began to pull back after Trump was elected president of the United States; November gold recorded the largest monthly decline since mid-2013, after the US election fell by 10%. From a technical point of view, gold has already fallen below the support level of $1124.88 per ounce, and it is likely to fall to the area of ​​1047.61 US dollars per ounce in the future. Investors' current interest in gold has been greatly reduced. The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR positions have been reduced by 10% since mid-November, and continued to lighten 6.8 tons on Wednesday. Gold demand from China and India is not enough to support gold. Before the emergence of major positive events, the decline of gold is expected to be difficult to terminate.

The number of US initial jobless claims fell to 254,000, indicating that they are at or near full employment.

According to a government report on Thursday (December 15), the number of US initials last week was better than expected, indicating that the US job market continues to tighten.

According to data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL), the number of initial jobless claims in the US on December 10 was 254,000, which was below the threshold of 300,000 for 93 consecutive weeks, estimated at 255,000. The value is 258,000.

(The number of initial jobless claims in the United States, source: FX168 Financial Network)

More data shows that the average weekly jobless claims rose by 5,250 to 275,750, with a previous value of 252,500. The market believes that this data can better reflect the employment market conditions, because the fluctuation between weeks and weeks is removed.

In addition, the number of people who lost their jobless claims in the week of December 3 was 2.018 million, which was revised to 2.07 million in the previous week.

The number of initial jobless claims is based on the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time last week. The data is a good complement to the monthly employment report. When more people apply for unemployment benefits, it means employment is reduced, and vice versa. Investors can use the report to seek clues about economic growth, but the data is volatile.

Reuters commented that the US data at the beginning of the week said that as the job market continued to tighten, the number of people in the United States decreased at the beginning of the week, which was below the threshold of 300,000 for 93 consecutive weeks, the longest continuous cycle since 1970, indicating labor. The market is at or near full employment; the Fed's December FOMC meeting is expected to raise interest rates three times in 2017, also showing its confidence that the job market will continue to tighten.

US CPI rose 0.2% in November from the previous month. It is mild but should support multiple interest rate increases next year.

According to a government report released on Thursday (December 15), the US consumer price index (CPI) monthly rate in November is in line with expectations. After the Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points overnight, current inflation performance may support The Fed will be able to raise interest rates several times next year.

According to data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL), the core CPI rate for food and fuel without volatility rose by 0.2%, an increase of 0.2%.

The data also showed that the US overall consumer price index rose by 0.2% in November, prepaid by 0.2%, and November CPI rose by 1.7%.

The US Department of Labor also said in today's report that the core CPI rose by 2.1% year-on-year in November, an increase of 2.2%, and an increase of 2.1% in October.

Reuters commented that the US CPI data in November said that the overall performance of the data was relatively mild, with gasoline prices rising by 2.7% from the previous month. Property prices continued to maintain an upward trend, while food prices stabilized for five consecutive months. Potential inflation trends suggest that US inflation is Stabilizing, after the Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points overnight, the current inflation performance may support the Fed to achieve multiple rate hikes next year.

The US initial Markit manufacturing PMI in December was 54.2, the highest since March 2015.

An industry report released by financial data company Markit on Thursday (December 15) showed that the initial value of the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) in the US in December was higher than the last month's final value, the highest since March 2015.

The data shows that the US preliminary purchasing managers index (PMI) in December was 54.2, the highest since March 2015, and the final value in November was 54.1.

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index reflects the overall development of the US manufacturing industry. Because manufacturing accounts for a large proportion of US GDP, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is also an important indicator for assessing the US business environment and overall economic conditions. 50 is a watershed that marks the shrinking or growing of the industry.

The initial value of the US MARKIT Manufacturing Output Sub-Index in December was 55.1, and the final value in November was 56.3.

The initial value of the US MARKIT Manufacturing New Order Sub-Index in December was 54.1, the highest since June 2015, and the final value in November was 52.4.

Markit's chief economist Williamson said that the US manufacturing industry performed strongly at the end of 2016, and the domestic market is booming, indicating that consumer demand is rising and inventories are increasing, which is offsetting the impact of the decline in exports from the strong dollar; corporate employers are taking 18 The fastest growth in the month and the procurement activity have also been boosted. This shows that the confidence of producers has improved. It is expected to have a good start in 2017. The steady growth of the economy and the rise in prices will increase the Fed will increase further in 2017. The probability of interest.

US December NAHB housing market index is higher than expected as the highest since July 2005

According to data released by the National Association of Home Builders on Thursday (December 15), the US NAHB housing market index for December was the highest since July 2005, when it was 70.

The data shows that the US NAHB/FTRE market index was 70 in December, analysts' estimates were 63, and November was 63.

Indexes above 50 indicate that there are more builders optimistic about residential sales prospects than pessimistic builders. The index has been above 50 since June 2014.

The sales index for single-family homes in December was 76, compared with 69 in November. The potential buyer traffic index rose to 53 in December and 47 in November. The indicator for measuring the sales expectations of single-family homes in the next six months is 78 in November and 69 in November.

Outlook outlook

ABN Amro analyst Georgette Boele said that "the Fed's hawks far exceeded expectations, stimulating the dollar's rise again. The rise in US yields and the soaring dollar are the worst combination for gold."

ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said that “the ETF's lightening and selling is the result of the disappearance of investors' interest in the gold market. The demand for physical gold in China and India is weak and does not help gold.”

Rating agency Moody's said on Wednesday that the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on the US economy is negligible. The rate hike reflects the strong momentum of the US economy to maintain its expansion until the end of 2018.

Another rating agency, Fitch, also believes that the Fed's rate hike is a step toward a normalization of policy, and the US economy is unlikely to be as disappointing as the first half of 2016. The agency expects global economic growth in 2017 to rise from 2.5% this year to 2.9%.

Moody's pointed out that the Fed will tighten its policy at a very gradual pace. It is expected to raise interest rates two to three times before the end of 2017, pushing the federal funds rate to around 1.25% to 1.5%. The proportion of net interest expenses in total expenditure in FY 2025 will rise to 12.7%.

Fitch believes that changes in macroeconomic and policy backgrounds mean that the Fed will delay the possibility of further interest rate hikes, although the Fed will continue to be gradual by historical standards and its policy stance will remain loose.

At 00:35 Beijing time, spot gold reported $1,125.81 per ounce, down $17.49, or 1.53%.

(Spot gold daily chart source: FX168 financial network)

Proofreading: Charlotte

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